jeff rubin is not an oil alarmist—he doesn’t think that the world’s supply of crude will run out and cause resource wars and food shortages of apocalyptic proportions. in fact, he doesn’t even think the world’s supply of crude is running out at all. rubin made this clear as he addressed the business of climate change conference in toronto last september, opening his keynote address with the statement, “the world’s not running out of oil.” however, after milking the pause for a second or two, rubin went on: “but it has already run out of oil it can afford to burn.” in short, rubin emphatically believes that two intensifying and antagonistic trends will cause a blast-off of crude oil prices in the next 15 months: exponentially-increasing demand for oil tied to the global economy and the ever-accelerating depletion of conventional (cheap) oil reserves. instead of calling for government action to avert the crisis-causing apex of these two trends, rubin thinks the crisis will be addressed by local and individual action driven by market forces. “the prices needed to get unconventional oil out of the ground are the same prices that will get you off the road,” he explained. he elaborated by predicting that stratospheric oil prices would force consumers and producers alike to change behaviours that would eventually lead to a breakdown of the global economy and a return to local economies// josh garrett, 02.01.10, heatingoil.com
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